Morhamburn Public Affairs, PR, Media and Government Relations » Niamh

General Election 2010 – SNP: View from the north

Niamh — Wed, 05 May 2010 16:28:36 +0000

With all the talk of hung parliaments and coalition governments it appears that the Scottish example has finally permeated the Westminster village. The latest campaign twist is that DC would shun constitutional convention (that the existing PM gets first shot at forming a coalition government) and plough ahead with a minority government. I have visions of Malcolm Tucker sidling up to Julius Nicholson for a quiet word.

The current electoral scenarios and their likelihood all hang on a number of interconnected factors not least the media beast. A Labour coalition with Lib Dems, with or without Brown, looked shaky in the last 10 days with the recent Clegg factor but the FPTP UK electoral system keeps this a fairly solid contender. A second general election remains the least likely option. I doubt whether even the candidates would have the stomach for a re-run let alone the population. And today’s new candidate appears to be the assertion that DC would declare victory (on the popular vote) and form a minority government, though I suspect this would be contingent upon very strong media support.

The SNP have made it look easy. Granted there have been a few dips in popularity but on the whole the SNP government has retained popular support and the very fact that they are still in power speaks volumes. But the Holyrood and Westminster beasts are very different and this should not be overlooked. Yes Cameron may feel that he is reading the public, with their appetite for a new era of politics and that a consensual model will be palatable. Perhaps he is even gambling that professing a desire or willingness to work in such a manner will create a situation where he will not need to. However the PM in waiting is forgetting to tally some key points – a minority government survives on compromise and concession; the Conservatives have identified a pretty radical, to some of the parties, unpalatable, work programme. These two facts do not made good bed fellows.

Salmond has provided strong leadership and worked with all parties in Scotland but success alone does not rest with a particular SNP mindset, rather the foundations for success are embedded into the Holyrood mechanics: an electoral system built on proportional representation in contrast to the partisan politics that FPTP creates in Westminster; and the modus operandi of how Holyrood’s committee system works. The Scottish system is designed to promote collaboration. Westminster has been built upon decades, even generations of partisan politics.

Minority governing and politics is a long, hard, draining slog. Radical, ambitious work programmes have to be squared with reality. The SNP have needed to curb their enthusiasms on certain issues and Tory success would hinge upon their ability to do the same but the Conservatives are chomping at the bit after 13 years in waiting. Every bill for a minority government will need to be built upon support and sweeteners, in stark contrast to the early Blair years. Advocating a willingness to govern as a minority government is ambitious and possibly very dangerous. Amongst all the electioneering bravado it may appear gutsy but it could prove a very poisoned chalice in the long run.

[The views expressed by Morhamburn people in their blogs are theirs and theirs alone. they do not represent the thoughts of the company as a whole or our clients. If you have a comment to make on any blog, please email info@morhamburn.com and we’ll put the printable ones up on the website]

Election 2010 – Lib Dems: The Clegg Factor

Niamh — Sat, 17 Apr 2010 13:48:13 +0000

Anyone who watched the leaders’ debate last night will be pleasantly surprised. All the hype and anticipation surrounding the momentous event created all the hallmarks of potential disappointment however apart from the underwhelming stage set the event itself was engaging and interesting.

Gordon Brown performed better than expected (my favourite was his one liner about how the Tories had managed to find a picture of him where he was smiling) but expectations were pretty low to start with and on the whole the performance was below par for a Prime Minster; David Cameron was disappointing, he looked uncomfortable to say the least, perhaps he was disadvantaged by his positioning being squeezed in the middle; but the surprise star of the evening was the Lib Dem’s Nick Clegg.

Clegg’s natural, human touch left the other two flailing in the distance. He stared directly into the camera, addressing the audience at home in a reassuring and personal manner, he made people feel that he was talking to them and them alone. Nice touch. Clegg also proved himself superior to his opponents in demonstrating that he recognised the public mood – one that was crying out for a vision and strong leadership as well as, potentially most importantly, honesty. His approach to the issue of care for the elderly was markedly impressive and refreshing – yes he didn’t have the perfect answer and acknowledged as much, however, more importantly he made me believe that he had the ability to find one – and that’s what the public want and in the words of X factor judges he nailed it.

However he has set the tone for round 2 of the leaders’ debate and the gloves will definitely be off. Labour and Conservative strategists will be devoting a significant proportion of their energies to scrutinising Lib Dem policies. If Nick Clegg is PM material (as much of the media spectrum is billing him) then this next debate will underline this.

Next week sees the turn of the Scottish Leaders debate and I would imagine all are fervently studying up. The coming days will be spent dissecting last night’s events and more importantly the public reaction. Clegg lagged on law and order and government; Cameron hit mud over Iraq, Europe and America; and the Prime Minister fell short on the armed forces, taxation, health and law and order. The parties in Scotland will now be digesting this and prioritising their key battle fields with care.

Undoubtedly though those who seek to gain most from the debate will be Mundell and Carmichael – the debate is theirs to win; for Murphy and Robertson they have the more gargantuan task. What happens next week will illustrate which party is closest to recognising the public mood and able to respond to this leaving that party in a very strong position for May 6.

Election 2010 – SNP: Dancing to a Scottish Jig?

Niamh — Fri, 09 Apr 2010 16:07:03 +0000

At last we are officially in the midst of an election campaign. All the parties are now doing the rounds, though some of the leaders look as though they’ve spent the last few (4.5 to be more accurate) years non-stop campaigning. The SNP proclaim that with a hung parliament and a strong nationalist presence they can make Westminster dance to a Scottish jig. The imagery alone of that one brightens the dullest of days.

Historically the SNP does not perform well at UK level elections. Their stated aim of 20 seats is ambitious and it isn’t just Labour that they need to battle. The Lib Dems are frantically positioning themselves as the second party in Scotland (based on the current Westminster allocation) and it will be to the SNP’s peril should they write off the UK’s third party currently basking in the Vince factor glory. For those who have had enough of the Labour- Conservative slanging match and feel that the SNP are irrelevant at Westminster the Lib Dems are starting to look, for the first time since the early 90s, like a contender. Their Edinburgh, Aberdeen and Glasgow seat wish list, though the smallest of all the parties, is strategically focused and will tap into the current urban malcontent.

On the other end of the spectrum the SNP’s seat wish list is the biggest of the four parties. They are targeting seats from Ayrshire North and Arran to Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey as well as harbouring the frantic desire to hold Glasgow East. Their supporters are renowned for getting out, spreading the message and religiously knocking on doors but coming not long after the Euro election campaign and in the mid point of their Holyrood term the party machinery will have to work hard to keep the troops going for the next 4 weeks and the recent polls (well, that’s depending on which polls you are looking at) are not confidence builders either.

The key election battleground for 2010 is the economy. Everything whether its health, education, or ‘society’ all play second fiddle to the issue of getting the economy back on track and keeping it there. The SNP’s soon to be released manifesto will undoubtedly place the argument that Scotland should be protected from the looming cuts centre stage. They have already called for a stimulus package to support recovery north of the border and they vociferously oppose cuts to UK-wide benefits for pensioners, children and the unemployed. But the SNP’s real fight in this campaign must be to prove to the electorate that they are not simply a one issue party that they can be relevant and more importantly deliver for Scotland within the Westminster context, not simply be a thorn in the new government’s side.

In its attempt not to be squeezed out by the big boys the SNP’s campaign is focusing heavily on local champions and the strengths of their existing team of MPs. The question remains though, will a local approach recoup national success. Four weeks is a long time and there will be plenty of opportunities for wheels and gloss to come off, how the SNP handle the campaign ups and downs, not only their own but actually more importantly that of their opponents, will be telling. If the SNP can engage with Joe Public, recognise the political ennui and apathy and build their campaign upon accordingly, noting and avoiding their opponents’ errors, Salmond may just deliver another, even more unexpected blow to the big boys.

A tactical error that could cost an election

Niamh — Mon, 29 Mar 2010 11:25:34 +0000

Yesterday the Tories unveiled what could be only be described as the biggest blunder of the election campaign. It was a brave decision for Cameron to go with a campaign that plastered the face of his opposing number across the UK but the backlash is sure to come, and not necessarily from the direction that the Conservatives had taken a gamble on. The fear that the public may mistakenly see the face and assume it’s a Labour poster without reading the slogans shouldn’t be the Tories’ main worry, rather the public will see the image, read the caption and be pushed further away from the whole election experience.

The Conservatives have misjudged the public mood. In the face of the parliamentary expenses scandal and most recently last week’s Dispatches expose of the murky world of cash for access through ex-Ministers and soon to be stars of the Lords, such negative campaigning is another smack in the face for the already weary public. Society en masse is already oh so aware of the proposed austerity drive that lingers on the horizon. The prospects are pretty bleak in general, what the public wants, what the public needs, is evidence that the next government has the vision, the drive and the authority to lead and that is not being currently demonstrated by the latest Conservative poster campaign.

The campaign is also the second this year unveiled by the Tories. Who could forget the ‘I’ve never voted Conservative before but…’ billboards complete with a Hollywood gloss prime minister in waiting. It was the campaign that never was, falling victim to a guerrilla attack which catapulted the poster onto every social networking site and culminated in a public consciousness, though not the one the Conservatives were hoping for – everyone had their favourite unofficial variation. Pushing aside the subliminal cost message that this campaign brought with it, I assume that Conservative high command took stock of postergate before embarking on their current foray, so I remain slightly puzzled as to how they could translate public reaction to their last media campaign (possibly overly air-brushed and tinged with a certain smugness, not to mention quite humorous – though the latter of course refers to the unofficial Cameronise-your own web versions) as vindication that their next media blitz should underline the worst excesses of negative campaigning.

Saatchi may be a lucrative multi-million pound business and may be credited with helping sweep Thatcher to power in the 1970s but a looming period of union unrest alone does not transport us back in time. The public may not have fallen in love with Gordon Brown but they have not fallen out of love with Labour. In this election where differing panaceas are being offered to cure society’s ills the Labour heartland will rally. The quest therefore remains for the elusive floating voters and PR faux pas can be a costly price to pay.

Social Media and the 2010 Election

Niamh — Mon, 15 Feb 2010 16:06:08 +0000

There are two buzz themes at the minute: ‘social media’ and the ‘election’. Or perhaps I should say three, as the latest buzz is emanating from the merger of the two. We know politicians have been getting into twitter (well, with the exception of Pete Wishart MP who has launched a one man campaign to rid the world of twitter after a bad experience at PMQs), facebook and of course the blogosphere though thankfully they have steered clear of bebo and myspace (perhaps leaving this as the domain where the kids reign unchallenged and thus avoiding all experiences akin to a drunken uncle and wedding dancing).

All the parties’ communication experts are identifying the social networking frontiers as a key battleground. We’ve already had the Gordon Brown You-tube experience and the Cameronians are partial to some twittering, in the Scottish Parliament the Lib Dems lead the way on facebook usage behind the one man show that Patrick Harvie MSP, and political parties’ members can blog to their hearts content. Social networking sites provide opportunities for politicians / aspiring politicians to rally their supporters: provide them with information, let them know about forthcoming fundraising events or leafleting in their area, or ensure that they are fully aware that X opponent said Y this week. However the question is whether politicians and parties can use these sites to make the breakthrough and crack the non-political public, those who only really think about politics in the run-up to a general election or during a scandal. The belief appears to be that the e-audience may be easier, more receptive than those using traditional media outputs but I would suggest that the parties have their work cut out – yes, social media can be open but it can also be very closed and those not wishing to hear the same messages that emanate from their tv and radio may retreat further into their own spaces away from the political noise.

That said this could be where this election may actually bring some merit – discussions of values, policies and vision have largely remained dormant in this election, with the mainstream media focusing on party sound bites and drawing attention to policy slip-ups. It is perhaps in the social media arena where genuine discussion can take place, discussion away from identifiable party sites and forums but instances where genuine dialogue springs forth from interested voters. Since the last election we have had the recession, the realisation of climate change has dawned on the world, the UK parliament has been rocked by scandal – any future government will have less money to play with and big questions to tackle (education, health spending, caring for those in older age) in addition to the global backdrop. If these are not enough to provide a catalyst to mobilise discussion and prompt citizens to fulfil their civic duty then the age of mass democracy is undoubtedly entering a period of crisis.

Social networking sites fulfil a range of functions for their aficionados: I can see what my friends are talking about / interested in, I can see who likes which band / book / film, I can also see which causes / issues / groups my friends have joined. A friend joining / becoming a fan of a political party is probably not a stimulus alone for me, though what does interest me is that they have taken the step. What other people (and by people I mean those non-politicised) are saying about policy and issues that affect my life are reassuring. I may not agree with their points but at least they care enough to have thought about the issue and developed a point of view.

The social networking focus for the political parties in this year’s election hangs on the fact that these sites can provide a function in terms of tactical voting but social media has a far more valuable role to play this year. Social media can creating the spaces for genuine, non-party instigated public discussions, which, if they do spring forth would place 2010 in the history books.

Still doing it their way…Northern Ireland, Day 7

Niamh — Tue, 02 Feb 2010 11:17:41 +0000

So the 48-hour deadline for a deal to be reached has passed, but the UK and Irish governments have not laid down their proposals as threatened. Once again Northern Irish politics has shown it is a unique, some may say peculiar entity. Most people will ask – why haven’t the UK and Irish governments told those pesky Stormont politicians how it’s going to be done and the answer is simple, the only solution, workable and lasting solution, is one which will spring from the DUP and Sinn Fein. If they don’t hammer one out, then nothing presented from upon high will fix the situation and years of Northern Ireland have illustrated this time and time again.

Now we appear to be edging closer to a deal. Dermot Ahern’s (Irish Minister for Justice) glimmer of hope still shines. There is always a sense of grandiose about Northern Irish deals – a language alone could be invented for their ability to take the concept of ‘eleventh hour’ breakthroughs to a whole new level. For every instance of gridlock in the long road since 1998, each time consensus was reached it occurred just at the point when all hope was practically at the point of abandon and each time that point is pushed further and further.

Today Gregory Campbell (DUP) has suggested that any agreement must be discussed with the people before it can be finalised; an idea which Gerry Adams finds particularly intriguing, especially if the DUP is to seek the views of the entire community. Imagery pervades.

Interestingly as the length of the current stalemate continues (to a point) my confidence mounts that a solution will be found. Neither the DUP nor Sinn Fein are walking away, both sides show a genuine commitment to identifying a workable solution, underlining that they are not prepared to let what may be considered as one of the largest stumbling blocks in recent devolution’s history, derail the assembly. Last week I was sceptical, day 7 and optimism is growing.

A place quite like no other

Niamh — Sun, 24 Jan 2010 14:01:33 +0000

Once again Northern Ireland manages to catapult itself into the media glare. Brown and Irish Taoiseach Cowen enter day two of emergency talks and nothing seems certain, except of course that Northern Irish politics in its own unique way will defy all logic.

On the face of it neither the DUP nor Sinn Fein should want a popularity contest right now. The DUP are grappling with their most humiliating PR ‘incident’ yet and even the presence of the very Reverend Ian Paisley next to Peter Robison on a podium will not ameliorate their perceived moral downfall; Sinn Fein’s Gerry Adams is himself battling his own PR wars, repudiating accusations that he mismanaged complaints about alleged rapists and child abusers.

However, in the larger picture Northern Ireland takes precedence. Sinn Fein cannot back down on policing – that was a hard fought issue to sell to their voters and not to deliver on it or worse still the perception that they are not fighting tooth and nail on it would be disastrous; they have lost on the Irish Language Act (though discussions do continue on this issue), the Troubles Museum and academic selection for secondary schools, they cannot back down on policing. For the Unionists, Robinson, his position already tenuous, will not be keen to fight a Westminster election later this year having forfeited the policing issue and may instead wish to tackle the TUV (Traditional Unionist Voice) now.

A compromise may be reached but to envisage that Sinn Fein will back down on the abolition of the Parades Commission in return for agreement on the devolution of policing and justice is unlikely and it will be a very hard sell to the nationalist community. Though SDLP are struggling Sinn Fein knows not to write them off in electoral terms. The rumour mill suggests that McGuinness is poised to resign, which would trigger an election call within 7 days; official government sources are describing the discussions as ‘frank’, ‘hard going’, ‘that progress is being made’ and ‘courteous’ but in Northern Irish politics official reports are as misleading as the unofficial commentaries. This is a political environment forged in the public eye and dominated by public perception. Compromise is still a fairly new concept in Irish politics, especially when what is at stake is control of Stormont for the next electoral term. Maybe it’s the sceptic in me but I can’t see either side backing down on this one.

New election frontrunner

Niamh — Thu, 21 Jan 2010 16:40:03 +0000

This election, which as I always seem to be stating feels like it has been going on for an eternity, took a probably rather (when you actually think about it) unsurprising turn last night in the shape of Mr Brown’s ex-PR wife. Mrs Gordon Brown glided in a rather well-versed understated PR manner onto the stage of the National Television Awards (NTA). Officially tasked with presenting the award for best drama actor what she actually ended up doing was a Michelle Obama-like cameo performance for the nation.

Billed as a mother and charity campaigner I found myself racking my brains trying to work out who the producers were going to roll out – what were the recent campaigns that so profoundly touched the nation that their very personification was offered this prime time slot – to be perfectly honest I was rather underwhelmed by the answer and felt a little cheated. Yes Mrs Brown attends the fashion magazines’ fashion awards, she twitters and flutters around on peripheral ‘wife and mother’ issues but this merging of the worlds of politics and popular TV was a step too far. Or am I simply too old fashioned in believing there should be a good old separation of powers? Is there no space in society that the unaware masses can remain oblivious to probably the strangest election campaign ever?

I don’t think I was alone in finding the experience unpalatable – as the camera surveyed the audience, blank expression after slightly veiled nonplus one reflected back from the assembled stars and celebrities. Did they feel she was stealing their thunder and would try to poach the best attendees for a post-event Downing Street tea party and love-in; was it that Haiti covered every inch of real life media and this was their time to take the masses away from the tragedies and hardships of reality; or was it that they too were simply bored of the blatant in-your-face electioneering that has characterised this election campaign? To be honest it was probably a bit of all three.

Yes such appearances are not really a new phenomenon. Tony Blair presented Trevor MacDonald with a life time achievement award at a previous NTA bash but this one was very much a thinly veiled covert mission to convert the masses, well the voting ones anyway. Is having a very pleasant wife a reason to vote one way or another? Will the masses look at her and think more favourably of her husband?

My issue with last night was that it was another attempt to move this election campaign away from issues – those issues which affect every single one of us, both those who were perched on their sofas last night and those who weren’t; the issues that will affect our lives for probably (if the pattern of the last 30 years is anything to go on) the next 10 years. This election should be waged and fought on policy, on substance, and on a vision.

On your marks…

Niamh — Tue, 05 Jan 2010 12:05:34 +0000

For most of us this week is about edging back into the humdrum of normality after the Christmas excesses. But this week the New Year brings with it a new stage in the ever looming UK election campaign. Perhaps this is the pre-race warm-up that has now started in earnest. All the parties are starting their stretches and lunges in preparation for what can only be described as an electoral campaign of gargantuan proportions.

Maybe I am too involved in the to-ing and fro-ing of politics but that is part and parcel of my job – but doesn’t it feel like this pre-election non-campaigning has been going on for an eternity? Perhaps as a result of current voter apathy and revulsion at last year’s expenses scandal the new plan from mainstream parties is to wear us into submission through a very long, protracted and unclear campaign, which keeps substance and policy tightly guarded secrets.

There’s a long way (most likely) to go yet and as the American Presidential election clearly illustrated the initial front runners, who could almost have been forgiven for planning their interior design revamp, don’t always go the distance. With a campaign that is shaping up to be more of an endurance contest rather than focusing on the substance of policy and vision, it is difficult to get enthusiastic about the election in general and more specifically the fresh mandate for the winning party (or parties as the speculation goes).

Rumours and questions pervade and abound: is there a cabal forming within Labour pushing and plotting to dethrone Gordon Brown before the election; will Labour march into the next election behind their current leader ready to be judged by the people; which Miliband brother shall the party flock to; will the Tories succeed in romancing the populace into a new love affair (after all the ‘80s are back – according to the high street anyway); are the Lib Dems to be thrust firmly back into the spotlight after years in the political wilderness?

This election arrives at a pivotal juncture in UK politics. The twin challenges of climate change and recession are proving durable and their solutions evasive; voters are faced with a choice that doesn’t include Tony Blair for the first time in 13 years; the UK’s relationship with the devolved nations, specifically Scotland, continues to evolve – divergence both in real policy terms and approach has never before been so apparent; all 3 major UK parties have undergone internal transformations; the very institutional embodiment of UK politics has suffered an indelible blow; and the country appears to be facing an election contest that seems to have forgotten to acknowledge and clarify the core matter of the issues at hand. Though I do hope we see the triumph of policy over endurance this campaign.

Saving the planet one summit at a time

Niamh — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 13:00:00 +0000

If memory serves me correct climate change has been on the agenda for some time now, but again do correct me if I have misinterpreted this. Scientists are practically blue (though green does strike me as a more appropriate use of imagery) in the face telling us that the point of no return lies on the horizon. Every summit is heralded as the ‘one’ to sort out the environmental mess so excuse my cynicism if I don’t leap with joy at the prospect of what Copenhagen may bring.

Now that US President Obama will re-appear for the last day of the summit on 18 December observers seem to be unanimous in citing that this in itself increases the chances of reaching a deal. One man with so much power! I wonder if the same sentence will ever be said of our new EU President. Perhaps we should have created some ‘saving the planet award’ and presented this to Obama on the basis alone that he plans to attend on the last day; as the Nobel peace prize committee has shown, concrete achievements and successes are less of a guide these days. In the words of Obama himself, the prize could serve as another “call to action” and hey presto that would be climate change solved in a oner.

What smacks of this summit is the focus on personalities, there will be nearly 34,000 people there yet the focus is on the few – the Obamas, Merkels, Sarkozys, and Browns. I do hope that the fate of the future of the world is not left to a few. Yes leaders do need to lead, show example and take difficult and challenging decisions but what about us –the normal folks, continuing largely in our own little bubbles? What if this summit once again leaves us all with the bitter taste of disappointment, whose fault is that? And what should be done? These are all questions we know the answers to but as every good EU directive illustrates, it is not finding the answer and devising the legislation that is the problem, it’s the implementation.

The UN climate negotiator Yvo de Boer has stated that, “never in 17 years of climate negotiations have so many different countries made so many pledges.” If only pledges could save the planet.

[The views expressed by Morhamburn people in their blogs are theirs and theirs alone. they do not represent the thoughts of the company as a whole or our clients. If you have a comment to make on any blog, please email info@morahmburn.com and we’ll put the printable ones up on the website]