Policy Research Media Morhamburn

Once again Northern Ireland manages to catapult itself into the media glare. Brown and Irish Taoiseach Cowen enter day two of emergency talks and nothing seems certain, except of course that Northern Irish politics in its own unique way will defy all logic.

On the face of it neither the DUP nor Sinn Fein should want a popularity contest right now. The DUP are grappling with their most humiliating PR ‘incident’ yet and even the presence of the very Reverend Ian Paisley next to Peter Robison on a podium will not ameliorate their perceived moral downfall; Sinn Fein’s Gerry Adams is himself battling his own PR wars, repudiating accusations that he mismanaged complaints about alleged rapists and child abusers.

However, in the larger picture Northern Ireland takes precedence.  Sinn Fein cannot back down on policing – that was a hard fought issue to sell to their voters and not to deliver on it or worse still the perception that they are not fighting tooth and nail on it would be disastrous; they have lost on the Irish Language Act (though discussions do continue on this issue), the Troubles Museum and academic selection for secondary schools, they cannot back down on policing. For the Unionists, Robinson, his position already tenuous, will not be keen to fight a Westminster election later this year having forfeited the policing issue and may instead wish to tackle the TUV (Traditional Unionist Voice) now.     

A compromise may be reached but to envisage that Sinn Fein will back down on the abolition of the Parades Commission in return for agreement on the devolution of policing and justice is unlikely and it will be a very hard sell to the nationalist community. Though SDLP are struggling Sinn Fein knows not to write them off in electoral terms. The rumour mill suggests that McGuinness is poised to resign, which would trigger an election call within 7 days; official government sources are describing the discussions as ‘frank’, ‘hard going’, ‘that progress is being made’ and ‘courteous’ but in Northern Irish politics official reports are as misleading as the unofficial commentaries. This is a political environment forged in the public eye and dominated by public perception. Compromise is still a fairly new concept in Irish politics, especially when what is at stake is control of Stormont for the next electoral term. Maybe it’s the sceptic in me but I can’t see either side backing down on this one.       

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