Policy Research Media Morhamburn

At last we are officially in the midst of an election campaign. All the parties are now doing the rounds, though some of the leaders look as though they’ve spent the last few (4.5 to be more accurate) years non-stop campaigning. The SNP proclaim that with a hung parliament and a strong nationalist presence they can make Westminster dance to a Scottish jig. The imagery alone of that one brightens the dullest of days.

Historically the SNP does not perform well at UK level elections. Their stated aim of 20 seats is ambitious and it isn’t just Labour that they need to battle. The Lib Dems are frantically positioning themselves as the second party in Scotland (based on the current Westminster allocation) and it will be to the SNP’s peril should they write off the UK’s third party currently basking in the Vince factor glory. For those who have had enough of the Labour- Conservative slanging match and feel that the SNP are irrelevant at Westminster the Lib Dems are starting to look, for the first time since the early 90s, like a contender. Their Edinburgh, Aberdeen and Glasgow seat wish list, though the smallest of all the parties, is strategically focused and will tap into the current urban malcontent.   

On the other end of the spectrum the SNP’s seat wish list is the biggest of the four parties. They are targeting seats from Ayrshire North and Arran to Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey as well as harbouring the frantic desire to hold Glasgow East. Their supporters are renowned for getting out, spreading the message and religiously knocking on doors but coming not long after the Euro election campaign and in the mid point of their Holyrood term the party machinery will have to work hard to keep the troops going for the next 4 weeks and the recent polls (well, that’s depending on which polls you are looking at) are not confidence builders either.  

The key election battleground for 2010 is the economy. Everything whether its health, education, or ‘society’ all play second fiddle to the issue of getting the economy back on track and keeping it there. The SNP’s soon to be released manifesto will undoubtedly place the argument that Scotland should be protected from the looming cuts centre stage. They have already called for a stimulus package to support recovery north of the border and they vociferously oppose cuts to UK-wide benefits for pensioners, children and the unemployed. But the SNP’s real fight in this campaign must be to prove to the electorate that they are not simply a one issue party that they can be relevant and more importantly deliver for Scotland within the Westminster context, not simply be a thorn in the new government’s side.

In its attempt not to be squeezed out by the big boys the SNP’s campaign is focusing heavily on local champions and the strengths of their existing team of MPs. The question remains though, will a local approach recoup national success. Four weeks is a long time and there will be plenty of opportunities for wheels and gloss to come off, how the SNP handle the campaign ups and downs, not only their own but actually more importantly that of their opponents, will be telling. If the SNP can engage with Joe Public, recognise the political ennui and apathy and build their campaign upon accordingly, noting and avoiding their opponents’ errors, Salmond may just deliver another, even more unexpected blow to the big boys.

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