Like them or loathe them the UK’s biggest double act of the moment is of to a bit of a flier. Of course I’m talking about CammerClegg and their first two weeks in office although I could equally be talking about Ant and Dec and the return of Britain’s Got Talent.
Yes it would appear that the new couple are settling into their coalition quite nicely. A joint party manifesto: check. Spending cuts of £6 billion: check. Queen’s speech: check. Joint banking account: just for entertainments sake let’s say check. In all seriousness the first three are real achievements. It is far too early to tell how it will turn out over the 5 year term but it is a good start.
On the other hand, don’t you think that it has become a little bit of a one-sided agreement? I realise the Liberal Democrats are the junior partners but look at the agreement. Trident will be renewed but the Lib Dems can talk about an alternative if they want. There will be a referendum on AV voting system but the Tories will campaign against this. Actually don’t be overly surprised if Labour campaigns against this too just to get one over on the Lib Dems. Absolutely no joining the Euro and the Lib Dems can’t even mention this for the next 5 years.
Anyway, this wasn’t the intended direction when I started writing. Things have died down since the election and subsequent coalition agreement but it’s not the end. In fact we’re only just the beginning. Now we’re on the Road to Holyrood.
In a little less than a year, devolved Scotland will go to the polls for the first time under a government other than Labour. So what will the future hold for Scotland’s political parties?
Following their dismal display in Scotland at the General Election, the Scottish Conservatives found themselves being branded ‘marginal’ in Scotland and that they should ‘pack up north of the border’. However, these were not the cynical first attacks from opposition parties these comments came from Tory Lords Forsyth and Tebbit. They described their parties display in Scotland as ‘disastrous’. To add insult to injury for Tories in Scotland, their only Scottish MP was passed over for the Secretary of State Job with David Cameron preferring to install Danny Alexander. Despite the election setback, leader in the Scottish Parliament Annabel Goldie has reacted and shuffled her shadow cabinet aimed at presenting a break from the old Conservative stereotype. Will this prove to be good enough to overcome the (un-natural?) Scottish perception of the Tories?
Labour had a successful General Election if you only take Scotland into account. They managed to increase their share of the vote by 2.5%, won back two seats that had been lost in by-elections and there was a swing from SNP to Labour – albeit a minute one. So the Scottish Labour party have every reason to be buoyed going into this Scottish 2011 campaign. They may also have a lift from the news that Gordon Brown wants to play a role in the campaign. The General Election would appear to show that Scotland does not share the same distaste for Gordon Brown as the rest of the country. However, would Gordon Brown intervening in the campaign not overshadow the role of Scottish Labour leader Iain Gray?
Onto the Liberal Democrats then. I don’t know what to make of their role in the coming Scottish election. There had been a backlash in the days following the coalition agreement but that seems to have largely disappeared. Ultimately, I think that the Lib Dems will be judged on the performance of their brothers in the UK party and their role in government.
Finally, what of the Government? The SNP have many areas in which they can point to success. Frozen council tax rates, free tuition fees, (nearly) free prescription charges, and wider NHS improvements. In spite of this, opposition parties will campaign on failures on pledges on class sizes, help for first time buyers and the largely disappointing Scottish Futures Trust. In the General Election they saw their popular support slide but they did hold onto their six seats.
So what are we in store for? A Labour minority government? As surely another coalition with the Lib Dems is untenable. Can the SNP tap into anti-Tory sentiment and scare the public into restoring them to power and onward to Independence? Are the Tories and Lib Dems really marginal in this election? Who knows, only time will tell. So as the UK settles into their new coalition in Westminster, the Road to Holyrood has just begun.
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