Policy Research Media Morhamburn

So the Sun has rained on Gordon’s seaside break from Downing Street. It will now be supporting the Conservatives.

Tony Blair worked hard to woo the Sun in the run up to 1997. Obviously Rupert doesn’t think the new tenant at Number 10 has done quite enough to retain that allegiance. But Tony Blair also delivered devolution which means that what’s decided in Wapping has rather less impact in Scotland than before.

Because of devolution, had the story come from anywhere else except HQ, the Scottish Sun team might have ruled it a bit too English to feature on the Scottish front page.

They did run it, but that appears to be the end of the story for the Sun in Scotland. And you can understand why.

Rupert is a wiley chap. He does not back losers. He is not about to prove right the siren voices of newspaper-industry-doom who say that newspapers don’t have the power to influence that they once had.

The decision for the Scottish paper to back nobody at the moment, rather than following the London lead, will also be based on the issue of picking and backing winners.

The electoral leanings of the Scots don’t appear to have changed so much that the next election will see Scottish Conservatives sweeping to victory across lots of Scottish Westminster constituencies.

Maybe saying nothing shows that the paper is in tune with its Scottish readers because it appears you can back who you like for Westminster and Scottish voters will still feel it all has nothing much to do with them.

So what of the 2011 Scottish elections? What options are open to the Scottish Sun then?

Option one is to do nothing. The Scottish Sun may simply choose to continue with its policy of electoral neutrality. It may then have to allow itself to be regarded by some as a Tory-supporting paper by default because of the position of its London parent.

Option two is actively to back the Scottish Conservatives which would be consistent but might not leave the newspaper entirely unassociated with failure.

Option three might be to come out in favour of the Liberal Democrats or one of the wee parties. See the assessment for option two.

Option four might be to back Scottish Labour which would be interesting in terms of problems with head office.

My money’s on the remaining option.