Policy Research Media Morhamburn

With all the talk of hung parliaments and coalition governments it appears that the Scottish example has finally permeated the Westminster village. The latest campaign twist is that DC would shun constitutional convention (that the existing PM gets first shot at forming a coalition government) and plough ahead with a minority government. I have visions of Malcolm Tucker sidling up to Julius Nicholson for a quiet word. 

The current electoral scenarios and their likelihood all hang on a number of interconnected factors not least the media beast. A Labour coalition with Lib Dems, with or without Brown, looked shaky in the last 10 days with the recent Clegg factor but the FPTP UK electoral system keeps this a fairly solid contender. A second general election remains the least likely option. I doubt whether even the candidates would have the stomach for a re-run let alone the population. And today’s new candidate appears to be the assertion that DC would declare victory (on the popular vote) and form a minority government, though I suspect this would be contingent upon very strong media support.

The SNP have made it look easy. Granted there have been a few dips in popularity but on the whole the SNP government has retained popular support and the very fact that they are still in power speaks volumes. But the Holyrood and Westminster beasts are very different and this should not be overlooked. Yes Cameron may feel that he is reading the public, with their appetite for a new era of politics and that a consensual model will be palatable. Perhaps he is even gambling that professing a desire or willingness to work in such a manner will create a situation where he will not need to. However the PM in waiting is forgetting to tally some key points – a minority government survives on compromise and concession; the Conservatives have identified a pretty radical, to some of the parties, unpalatable, work programme. These two facts do not made good bed fellows.

Salmond has provided strong leadership and worked with all parties in Scotland but success alone does not rest with a particular SNP mindset, rather the foundations for success are embedded into the Holyrood mechanics: an electoral system built on proportional representation in contrast to the partisan politics that FPTP creates in Westminster; and the modus operandi of how Holyrood’s committee system works. The Scottish system is designed to promote collaboration. Westminster has been built upon decades, even generations of partisan politics.

Minority governing and politics is a long, hard, draining slog. Radical, ambitious work programmes have to be squared with reality. The SNP have needed to curb their enthusiasms on certain issues and Tory success would hinge upon their ability to do the same but the Conservatives are chomping at the bit after 13 years in waiting. Every bill for a minority government will need to be built upon support and sweeteners, in stark contrast to the early Blair years. Advocating a willingness to govern as a minority government is ambitious and possibly very dangerous. Amongst all the electioneering bravado it may appear gutsy but it could prove a very poisoned chalice in the long run.      

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