Policy Research Media Morhamburn

Failing, as Jonathon Freedland put it this week in the Guardian, “a twist so shocking it will have to be scripted by the writers of Lost”, Cameron’s government-in-waiting will move centre stage (though by centre I of course don’t mean on the ideological spectrum of course) after the next general election. There’s a flood of discussion on what a Tory government will mean for the UK. But what will it mean for us way up here in distant Scotland?

I doubt there’ll be many tears from the SNP government when GB is no longer UK PM. Even Gorbachev would have had his work cut out to try and create a spirit of glasnost between these two camps but should we expect a warmer or at the very least a non-glacial relationship between the nationalist government and a UK unionist one?

Well, indications are rather note worthy – slightly mixed, though that is probably what is making things interesting to observers. On the one hand the Conservatives recognise there is a heart and minds battle to be fought in Scotland and whether they agree with SNP policy, the Scottish Government, post both the financial sector upheaval and the Megrahi affair, continue to be recognised by the public as possessing, according to the polls “integrity”. So if this mood continues, not playing ball with the government of Scotland will not do the Tories any favours up here. However the relationship looks set to be a tightly managed balancing act. Whilst Cameron isn’t going to be the Prime Minister who lets Scotland slip away on his watch, greater financial independence is a different ball game, especially during a recession. My money is on more scope and more opportunities for the SNP government though how they use these is worth watching.

But we must not forget the Scottish Labour party. A Conservative electoral victory creates a new arena for Gray and co. It creates a situation that should be positive for the Scottish Labour party – whilst their colleagues in England and Wales will be engaged in some very real and profound soul searching and redirection, Labour in Scotland will also have the time but more importantly the space to consider and then engage with their own issues and crucially refocus on their task at hand – providing the effective opposition that is a prerequisite for strong democracy and good governance.

How exactly things will pan out in Scotland post-May 2010, well time will tell, but what’s not really in doubt is that things are going to change for at least three of the major political parties. What I’ll be watching is who adapts to the change best as this is going to be a central marker for success in the next Holyrood elections.