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The SNP have today refuted opponent’s claims that they have left it too late to hold a referendum on independence prior to next years Holyrood elections in May.  This follows on from an admission by the First Minister that independence is not the “centre of Scottish politics” at the current time.  This probably hasn’t been the easiest of weeks for Alex Salmond and his somewhat beleaguered government.

These stories are going to provide opposition parties with ample material with which to attack the SNP and Alex Salmond.  Secondly, it could leave Mr Salmond fighting a battle to keep his own party onside.  These are hardly appealing prospects for a party running for re-election.

Firstly, the opposition.  Scottish Labour et al hardly need an invitation to attack the SNP or their leader, however this is like Christmas come early.  It’s been labelled an admission of defeat by Alex Salmond, the final nail in the coffin for independence and an ignominious end to an administration.  On Thursday I predict that we will hear (from Iain Gray most likely) that the SNP are an independence party without the independence.  Or something to those lines, I can’t think of the pun just now but I have no doubt there will be one.

Despite these attacks from the other parties in Scotland, I doubt that these comments were made flippantly.  The General Election wasn’t a successful one for the SNP they didn’t lose anything but didn’t get close to the more than slightly ambitious target of 20 seats.  Out of fear of a Tory government at Westminster, Scotland voted big for Labour and there was a slight swing from SNP to Labour.  Furthermore, in a recently published poll for The Herald the stat men put the SNP on 29% for the constituency vote and 28% for the regional vote against Labour’s 45% and 41% respectively.  This pretty much leads to the conclusion that there will likely be a Labour government in Scotland from next May, and one not too short of a majority. The above figures put Labour on about 60 seats.

So a change of tact is necessary for the SNP if they want to hold onto power.  Alex Salmond seems to have realised this and acted accordingly.  After all, he didn’t say that independence was being shelved.  He said that gaining more fiscal powers for Scotland was a more realistic prospect and that the duty to campaign for what is good for Scotland as well as campaigning for independence.  In this he is attempting to show the electorate that the SNP are not only a one policy party and his parties belief in independence does not come at the expense of what is in the interests of Scotland.  It seems to me that it’s not a case of losing the independence debate, the SNP see it as not having taken place…yet.

Secondly, Alex Salmond may face some resistance to his comments from within his own party.  What do they want?  Independence (obviously), when do they want it?  Well, it depends on who you ask.  Some within the party favour independence right now some prefer to continue along the current path of devolution, more fiscal powers which, they believe, will lead Scotland to independence.

For this reason, Alex Salmond’s apparent backing away from a focused agenda on independence will be disconcerting.  It may be viewed that if he’s not the leader to push for independence then naturally they will want someone who will.  This course of action is very unlikely for the foreseeable future but those who disagree will not stay quiet if this strategy doesn’t work.

My guess is that recess can’t come quick enough for Alex Salmond.  He’ll want to get through this week, re-group over the summer and come out fighting in the autumn.  After all, if they don’t win this election then independence gets further away, not closer.

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